Netflix Losing Its Edge, U.S. Oil Running Low, Bank Stocks Worth Buying? Cheaper New Homes, Trading Frenzy Continues, Investment Scam Warning, Conservation Easements & More

Netflix Is Struggling to Stay on Top…. and the Stock Reflects It

For years, Netflix has been the dominant force in streaming, consistently taking market share from its competitors. However, recent data suggests the competition is beginning to chip away at that lead.

Netflix reported earnings last week, and the results showed a company that is executing well. Profits continue to grow, customer cancellations remain among the lowest in the industry, and the company is still producing blockbuster franchises like Bridgerton and Stranger Things that attract millions of viewers.

The concern in the report wasn't profitability, it was engagement. Viewer engagement measures how much time subscribers spend watching content and how often they complete a movie or series. The more engaged customers are, the less likely they are to cancel their subscription in favor of another streaming service. That's why this metric is so important.

Netflix still accounted for 7.8% of total TV viewing in April, making it the largest subscription streaming platform. However, that was its lowest share since May 2025, suggesting competitors are gradually gaining ground.

The stock has reflected those concerns, declining roughly 40% over the past year despite continued earnings growth. I've always liked what Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings had to say as he frequently emphasized the importance of staying focused and keeping the business simple. That's a philosophy that has served our investment firm well over the years.

Now, with increasing competition from Disney, HBO Max, YouTube, and others, Netflix is reportedly exploring additional subscription offerings similar to what Amazon and Apple provide. Personally, I think that would be a mistake.

At this year's Emmy Awards, Netflix earned 111 nominations. Instead of expanding into new subscription services, why not invest even more heavily in creating award-winning shows and movies? If they produced enough quality content to earn 120 or even 130 Emmy nominations next year, subscriber engagement would likely take care of itself.

Sometimes the best strategy isn't to do more, it's to do one thing exceptionally well. What do you think? Have you canceled or considered canceling your Netflix subscription? Or do you still believe Netflix offers the best streaming service?

U.S. oil supplies are falling to concerning levels

U.S. oil inventories have fallen to levels that should be a concern. The current U.S. oil stockpile is just under 410 million barrels. On a seasonal basis, we have not seen inventories this low since 2018. The seasonal comparison is important because summer is one of the highest-consumption periods of the year.

The U.S. consumes about 20.6 million barrels of oil per day, produces approximately 13.9 million barrels per day, and relies on imports for roughly 7 million barrels per day. At the same time, the United States exports about 4 million barrels of oil per day, likely because companies can receive higher prices for that oil in international markets. If we somehow stopped producing and importing oil entirely, the current commercial stockpile would last roughly 20 days.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which has been reduced to approximately 317 million barrels, is also at its lowest level since 1983. At current consumption rates, that reserve would represent roughly 15 days of consumption.

Replenishing U.S. oil inventories to higher levels could take many months or even years. Now with WTI oil around $90 a barrel that higher price could actually be a good thing.

You may be wondering why I would say that, especially since higher oil prices often mean higher gas prices at the pump, but higher gas prices may encourage consumers and businesses to reduce their energy consumption. A lower consumption rate could help slow the decline in inventories and give the U.S. a chance to rebuild its oil supplies.

Over the last six months, have you found yourself reducing your energy usage? And do you plan to reduce your consumption going forward?

Banks Had a Great Quarter, Is It Time to Invest?

Last week, the banks reported financial results that topped estimates for both earnings and revenue. They also showed improved efficiency as expenses declined as a percentage of revenue. After such a strong quarter, you might think the coast is clear and it’s time to invest in the banking sector.

For the cautious investor, however, it’s important to look at the other side of the coin. I’m not expecting the banks to fall dramatically but returns going forward could be more muted because of several factors.

First, there is net interest margin, which measures the difference between what a bank earns on its assets and what it pays depositors and debt holders to borrow money. Banks now have very large balance sheets, so even if net interest margins decline, the dollar amount of profits can remain substantial. However, further pressure on margins could still become a headwind for future earnings growth.

There are also other risks for conservative investors to consider. The ongoing situation with Iran could create additional uncertainty. The AI boom could experience a rough patch, and while the economy and labor markets appear strong right now, investors cannot ignore the possibility of an economic slowdown.

Rising interest rates could also prove difficult for banks if rates move significantly higher from current levels, potentially putting pressure on their profit margins.

The good news is that bank valuations are not excessively high, which could help limit the downside risk in the event of a market pullback.

To be clear, we are not anticipating a major decline in the banks we hold in our portfolio. However, investors should make sure the banks they own have very strong balance sheets. Strong capital positions and manageable debt can help reduce downside risk if the economic environment becomes more challenging.

A strong quarter is certainly a positive sign for the banks, but investors should remember that great earnings today do not always guarantee great returns tomorrow. Valuation, balance-sheet strength, and the economic environment will all play an important role in determining future returns.

Are new homes actually a better deal than existing homes?

There is an interesting trend developing in the housing market: the median price of a newly built home is now lower than the median price of an existing home. Historically there has been about a 20% premium for new homes.

At first, that sounds surprising. New homes are typically more expensive, so how can they now be cheaper? One major reason is that the type of new homes being built and sold has changed. Builders are increasingly focusing on smaller homes, townhomes, and more affordable developments. Townhouses now account for about one in five new single-family homes, which is the highest share since the National Association of Home Builders began tracking the data in 1985. In many cases developers are focusing on attainable homes for the middle-class which means the homes are roughly 1,200 to 2,000 square feet on smaller lots. As a result, the median price of a new home can look lower than the median price of an existing home, even though that doesn't necessarily always mean buyers are getting more house for their money.

In other words, the comparison isn't always apples to apples. A new townhome or smaller home may have a lower price than an older, larger single-family home. That can make new construction appear to be a better deal, but buyers need to carefully consider what they are actually comparing.

There are some real advantages to buying new. Builders are offering incentives such as mortgage-rate buydowns and assistance with closing costs. These lower rates make the monthly payment lower and more achievable than a comparable existing home. New homes typically require less maintenance, come with modern finishes and new appliances, are more energy efficient, and often come with warranties.

But there are risks and a big one many people may not consider is lower resale value. Many of these new home developments only provide a handful of floorplans and they are built on a smaller parcel of land, which leads to less distinctive homes. If you go to sell your home within a few years, you may also be competing against the homebuilder if new homes are still being built in the community.

The bottom line: new homes may offer some of the best deals in the housing market right now, but buyers need to look beyond the headline numbers. Compare the size, location, price per square foot, HOA fees, upgrades, and the total monthly cost. A new home may be a better deal than an existing home, but make sure you understand exactly what you are getting for your money.

Stock Trading Is Off the Charts!

There is a frenzy happening in the stock market right now. With individuals buying and selling stocks, along with institutional investors constantly trading, Wall Street is generating enormous trading fees. But one has to ask the question: Does all of this activity make sense?

U.S. average daily trading volume in equities and options hit a record in the second quarter, with 73 million options contracts and 20 billion shares traded. Think about that number for a minute: 20 billion shares of stock changing hands over just three months. Let that sink in.

We have not seen this much activity in individual stocks since the end of the dot-com bubble, and we all know how that turned out.

The good news is that, with this frenzy of stock trading, more people are beginning to seek professional help managing their portfolios. The bad news is that many brokers are really just salespeople who may not have a strong investment philosophy or truly understand what they are doing. They will simply ride the wave until the crash comes, just as happened at the end of the tech bust.

Back then, even a year after the market had collapsed, some brokers were still telling their clients to stay invested because the market would eventually come back. I remember an old saying I learned when I first entered the industry: “The broker knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.”

It took the Nasdaq more than 15 years to get back to breakeven after the dot-com bubble burst when it fell close to 80% from top to bottom. That is why it is so important, when seeking financial advice, to understand the investment philosophy of the broker or investment adviser you are working with. Does their philosophy make sense to you? Does it align with your goals? And, most importantly, does it make sense for your portfolio?

When markets are rising and everyone is making money, almost any strategy can look brilliant. The real test is what happens when the frenzy ends.

If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is!

A recent story in Barron’s highlights a warning that applies to everyone, not just professional athletes.

Several current and former professional athletes reportedly invested in an online business opportunity that sounded too good to be true. Three former NFL players were interviewed by Barron’s and collectively they said they lost more than $1 million. The pitch was simple: invest at least $50,000 in an online store and they’ll handle everything from social-media marketing to manufacturing store inventory. Investors were told they would get their original investment back within six months, and then receive 80% of the profits.

Sounds like a great deal, right? Unfortunately, according to the investigation, it appears the sales weren’t real. The stores were built using Shopify and appeared to be generating significant revenue. But investigators reportedly found questionable orders, including one $5,000 order for 100 desktop humidifiers and 120 USB-powered cup warmers. The person at the shipping address said they never placed the order and “Who needs 100 humidifiers and 120 cup warmers?” There were also other red flags including one e-commerce site, Dailyprodtrend, doesn’t appear in Google search results and the web address is just a random string of numbers and letters.

The scheme is run by a 24-year-old entrepreneur named Mohamed Coulibaly and to gain credibility he used celebrity connections citing the names of about two dozen current and former pro athletes and other public figures as clients in a pitch deck. He also has created an image of wealth and success with one athlete saying he saw what appeared to be $25 million in a business account that Coulibaly showed him on a cellphone screen. It’s important to remember that no matter how successful someone appears or how many famous people they know you still need to do your own due diligence.

A big problem is the websites were just the beginning of what appears to be a longer con. Once investors had their Shopify login credentials, they were given the impression the business was healthy due to these “fake” orders and then were presented with an even bigger bet that involved the Dubai investment firm Middle East Venture Partners. Unfortunately, this appears to have led to more red flags and still no return on investment.

Before investing, you should independently verify the revenue, customers, expenses, bank statements, contracts, and the actual business itself. Don't simply rely on an online dashboard or someone else's claims about how much money is being made.

The bottom line: If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. And the more exciting and guaranteed the opportunity sounds, the more skeptical you should become.

Financial Planning: Conservation Easements: Valuable Planning Tool or Tax Trap?

Conservation easements are a tax planning strategy that allows a landowner to permanently donate certain development rights to a qualified conservation organization in exchange for a charitable income tax deduction equal to the reduction in the property's value. When used as Congress intended, they can provide meaningful tax benefits while preserving land for future generations. For example, a family that owns a 1,000-acre ranch valued at $10 million may have no intention of developing the property and want to ensure it remains open space permanently. By donating a conservation easement that limits future development, the property value may decline to $6 million, creating a $4 million charitable deduction while allowing the family to continue owning and using the land. This type of transaction aligns with the purpose of the law because the conservation benefit is the primary goal and the tax deduction is an incentive. However, taxpayers should be cautious of strategies that appear too good to be true. In recent years, the IRS has aggressively challenged syndicated conservation easement transactions that were marketed primarily as tax shelters. In these arrangements, investors often contributed a relatively small amount of capital to a partnership that acquired land, and promoters claimed the donation of a conservation easement created deductions several times larger than the investors’ original contribution. For example, an investor might contribute $250,000 and be promised a $1 million charitable deduction based on an aggressive property valuation. Many of these transactions relied on inflated appraisals and lacked a genuine conservation purpose, resulting in significant IRS scrutiny, disallowed deductions, penalties, and litigation. While conservation easements can be used in specific situations, they should be approached with caution and used only when there is a legitimate conservation objective. As with many tax strategies, a benefit that appears disproportionately large compared to the underlying economic activity is often a warning sign that additional due diligence is needed.

Are Porsche Cars Losing Their Excitement?

Porsche cars have long been known for their high-end, exciting sports cars. But lately, the company has been losing sales compared with last year.

Porsche faces plenty of competition, but its global deliveries were down 16% during the first six months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Last year, the company benefited from strong demand for the electric Macan, while it also ended production of the gasoline-powered 718.

The company was also hurt by the loss of U.S. tax incentives for electric vehicles, which contributed to the decline in sales. Porsche sold 37,712 vehicles in North America, a 13% decline from last year. China, which accounts for roughly 10% of Porsche's sales, saw an even larger drop, with sales falling 32% to 14,501 vehicles.

The price of a Porsche starts at around $65,000, but the average transaction price is closer to $125,000. And if you know anything about these cars, you also know that the maintenance and upkeep can put significant pressure on your wallet.

You would think that if you're spending $125,000 on a car, you shouldn't have to spend a fortune maintaining it. But that can be part of the trade-off when owning a high-performance luxury vehicle.

So, are Porsche cars losing some of their excitement? Would you be willing to spend $125,000 on a new Porsche, or would you rather purchase a less expensive American car?

Time to Say Goodbye to EV Car Maker Polestar?

I would occasionally see Polestar vehicles on the road, and I believe the company even has a dealership at UTC Mall. However, I didn’t know much about the company and was surprised to learn just how complicated its ownership structure is.

Polestar is closely tied to Volvo, which is 79% owned by the Chinese company Zhejiang Geely Holding Group. The automotive world has become incredibly complicated over the years. I always thought of Volvo as a Swedish company, but that is no longer technically the case.

The ownership change began in March 1999, when Ford Motor Company paid $6.5 billion to acquire Volvo. However, Ford later sold 79% of Volvo to Geely in August 2010 for approximately $1.8 billion. The remaining 21% is publicly owned through stock ownership. In other words, Ford appears to have taken a significant loss on its investment.

Now, Polestar is facing serious challenges in the United States. The U.S. government is concerned about the company's connection to China and the possibility that data collected by the vehicles could be accessed by the Chinese government. As a result, new Polestar vehicles are no longer expected to be sold in the U.S.

What is strange, however, is that Volvo vehicles are still being sold in the United States, even though Volvo is also majority-owned by Geely. The situation shows just how complicated the relationship between the U.S. auto market and Chinese ownership has become.

There are currently reports of fire-sale discounts on Polestar vehicles, with some discounts reportedly reaching as much as $25,000 just to move the cars. These vehicles originally sold for roughly $55,000 to $75,000 when new.

I’m not sure who would want to purchase one at this point. The biggest concern may not even be the vehicle itself, but what happens to service and support for existing owners. It is possible that Volvo will continue servicing Polestar vehicles, but I would be skeptical about whether maintaining a separate service infrastructure for the brand will be worth the company's time.

After all, relations between the United States and China are currently far from ideal. For Polestar owners, that could create some serious questions about the future of their vehicles.

The New Tobacco Companies

The three remaining major players in the tobacco industry are Philip Morris International, British American Tobacco, and Altria Group. It should come as no surprise that the number of cigarettes sold in North America has dropped by about 33% since 2020, while the number of tobacco smokers continues to decline rapidly.

But don’t be fooled: Tobacco companies have developed smoke-free products that are gaining popularity, but that does not mean they are healthy. The two primary alternatives tobacco companies are now selling are vaping products and something called an oral nicotine pouch.

It is easy to see when someone is vaping because of the large clouds of vapor produced. Nicotine pouches, however, are much less noticeable. They are placed between the front of your teeth and your lip, similar to chewing tobacco. The difference is that you don't need to spit out saliva every few minutes because the nicotine is slowly released into your system.

Currently, in North America, about 7% of the population vapes, up from 3.7% in 2020. Nicotine pouches are also growing rapidly, although you can't see who is using them. In 2024, approximately 23 billion nicotine pouches were sold worldwide, a 50% increase from 2023.

Make no mistake: Both of these products contain nicotine, which is highly addictive and keeps people coming back for more. Some may believe that nicotine pouches are simply a way to move away from cigarettes, but that isn't necessarily the case. The pouch itself can become addictive as well.

Tobacco stocks have performed well, with some nearly doubling over the last few years. More institutional investors who previously dumped these stocks for ethical reasons are now returning because of the growth of smoke-free products.

It all sounds like smoke and mirrors to me. There are simply too many issues surrounding nicotine and the addictive nature of these smokeless products for me to feel comfortable investing in the tobacco industry.